DECIPHERING THE BABY LISA IRWIN CODE & THE MATHEMATICAL BEHAVORIAL ANALYSIS OF HER PARENTS. DID IT REALLY HAPPEN THE WAY THE PARENTS SAID IT DID.
“No one knows how they’d react if their child was missing“
That’s the interesting part of behavioral analysis: we do know how guilty people act and how innocent people act.
“Just because someone tells a few mistruths doesn’t make them a murderer.
On the contrary, fabrication of reality and murder are linked. Cindy makes for great quotes. We do know that when a child goes missing and the mother and/or father lie, the child is likely dead, a victim of homicide at the hands of one or both of the parents.
We do know that 1500 parents each year kill their children.
We do know that most all stranger abductions are not only rare, but the baby lives.
We have something similar to Statement Analysis: Behavioral Analysis.
If you look back in the archives, you can see the case of missing Texas native, David Hartley. David was reported “shot by some boats” on the “Mexico side” of Falcon Lake last year by his wife, who refused to take a polygraph for good reason.
Statement Analysis showed she was lying, and the conflicting stories she told media that she was lying. But there was more: Behavioral analysis showed Domestic Violence Expert and author Susan Murphy Milano that Tiffany Hartley, David’s wife, was involved in David’s death and was concealing information from the police.
Criminal Profiler Pat Brown said that this was likely an attempted drug purchase gone bad. Susan said that if investigators looked deep enough, they would find some connection to drugs, but for months, nothing appeared.
Tiffany, hounded by those demanding a polygraph, stopped talking to media for the most part, but when interviewed one more time, she slipped out that a drug cartel had rented the house that she and David had rented.
There was Susan’s connection.
Behavioral Analysis can be viewed in two ways:
1. Research 2. Common Sense
1. Research: The FBI amasses a great volume of research by simply reporting the actions of family of missing persons and when the case is adjudicated, they put the file on either pile A or pile B. Pile A is “family did it” and pile B, much smaller, “Stranger did it” and are able to compare the behavior of families in Pile A with families in Pile B. Elizabeth Smart’s family, for example, is in Pile B.
The Pile B folks include John Walsh, Marc Klaas and the Smarts. They universally cared nothing for accusations; only about the missing child, and demanded law enforcement scrutinize them with every microcsopic view known to them.
The Pile A folks weren’t quite so helpful. They were angry at being suspected, lawyered up, acted a certain way, spoke a certain way, failed polygraphs, and so on.
This group included the Aisenbergs, Susan Smith, Misty Croslin, Casey Anthony, Billie Dunn and Shawn Adkins, and we can now add in Deborah Bradley and Jeremy Irwin.
Behavioral Analysis can be viewed in two ways:
1. Research 2. Common Sense
1. Research: The FBI amasses a great volume of research by simply reporting the actions of family of missing persons and when the case is adjudicated, they put the file on either pile A or pile B. Pile A is “family did it” and pile B, much smaller, “Stranger did it” and are able to compare the behavior of families in Pile A with families in Pile B. Elizabeth Smart’s family, for example, is in Pile B.
The Pile B folks include John Walsh, Marc Klaas and the Smarts. They universally cared nothing for accusations; only about the missing child, and demanded law enforcement scrutinize them with every microcsopic view known to them.
The Pile A folks weren’t quite so helpful. They were angry at being suspected, lawyered up, acted a certain way, spoke a certain way, failed polygraphs, and so on.
This group included the Aisenbergs, Susan Smith, Misty Croslin, Casey Anthony, Billie Dunn and Shawn Adkins, and we can now add in Deborah Bradley and Jeremy Irwin.
Guilty people react one way and innocent people react another.
2. Common Sense
Some people are naturals at Behavioral Analysis. It is a matter of working through detail with systematic thought. It starts with a premise:
Believe what you are told.
2. Common Sense
Some people are naturals at Behavioral Analysis. It is a matter of working through detail with systematic thought. It starts with a premise:
Believe what you are told.
This is the same principle of Statement Analysis: believe that what you are about to examine is truthful and make your way through the facts (or in the case of linguistic analysis, through the words) and see if you hit any bumps in the road.
Make a check list.
Make a check list.
For each fact you encounter, make a + sign if it is sensible, and a – sign if it isn’t. Each detail will either fit the story (+) or it will feel off ( – ) and if you come upon something that you can’t decide if it feels weird or ‘hinky’, then give it a ( 0 ) score, and make it neutral.
When you are finished, if your score is + 1 or greater, it is probably safe to trust the original story; if it is in the negative – 1 or greater, it is probably a lie. The greater the swing, the greater the reliability.
Example: Caylee Anthony kidnapped.
1. The Mother did not report it for 31 days. – 1 2. The mother danced the nights away -1 3. The mother lied about everything – 1 4. The mother had a nanny but no job – 1 (on and on it goes)
By the time you are done, you are off the charts thinking that Casey Anthony, the mother, made up the kidnapping story, and your numbers would bear this out. It would be safe to assume that mother is lying.
By the time you are done, you are off the charts thinking that Casey Anthony, the mother, made up the kidnapping story, and your numbers would bear this out. It would be safe to assume that mother is lying.
Let’s take a look at Baby Lisa with the theory that a stranger kidnapped her.
1. The child was a white blued eyed baby + 1 2. The kidnapper got into a small window -1 3. The kidnapper chose the only night dad worked -1 4. The kidnapper didn’t make the dog bark -1 5. The kidnapper wasn’t heard on monitor -1 6. Mother drinking alcohol and rx -1 7. Kidnapper stole 3 cell phones -1 8. Mother changes story -1 9. Mother fails polygraph -1 10. Mother refuses full search of house -1 11. Mother refuses 2nd interview of kids -1 12. Father refuses separate interviews -1 13. Mother gets hair done -1 14. Mother/Father hit national media only -1 15. Parents get attorney -1 16. Dad tires of questions and walks out -1
and on it goes…
Fairly soon, you will find that this case is “off the charts” on behavioral analysis especially since the innocent tell attorneys where to go, and can’t eat, sleep, or function for the first few weeks.
1. The child was a white blued eyed baby + 1 2. The kidnapper got into a small window -1 3. The kidnapper chose the only night dad worked -1 4. The kidnapper didn’t make the dog bark -1 5. The kidnapper wasn’t heard on monitor -1 6. Mother drinking alcohol and rx -1 7. Kidnapper stole 3 cell phones -1 8. Mother changes story -1 9. Mother fails polygraph -1 10. Mother refuses full search of house -1 11. Mother refuses 2nd interview of kids -1 12. Father refuses separate interviews -1 13. Mother gets hair done -1 14. Mother/Father hit national media only -1 15. Parents get attorney -1 16. Dad tires of questions and walks out -1
and on it goes…
Fairly soon, you will find that this case is “off the charts” on behavioral analysis especially since the innocent tell attorneys where to go, and can’t eat, sleep, or function for the first few weeks.
The negative numbers in this case could rival that of Casey Anthony and as we consider each point, the number drops more and more. This is common sense and some people are better at it than others. Even if you don’t know statement analysis perhaps you felt ‘oddly’ about the mother’s use of the word “we”; her media appearances and her reluctance to use Lisa’s name.
Next time you see a statement or read a 911 call transcript, begin from the premise of “innocence” and see if anything disrupts your premise.
In statement analysis, we look at sensitivity indicators with enough of them, we can conclude deception.
In the case of Baby Lisa, the stranger abduction theory is “off the charts” deceptive; linguistically and logically.
